Ryan's Rate Commentary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: NEUTRAL
Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market improved by +56 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: NEUTRAL
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) New Administration, 2) Davos, 3) Central Banks.

1) New Administration: The global markets will be extremely sensitive to the barrage of initial Executive Orders this week as well as tariffs, taxes, Doge, regulations, budget, debt ceilings, the border and much more.

2) Davos: This week is the World Economic Forum held in Davos Switzerland. It has a much different tone this year.

3) Central Banks: We will get key rate decisions out of the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Japan.

This Week's Potential Volatility: HIGH
This morning markets started with a small boost. Volatility has started at moderate levels with potential for high volatility depending on political wild cards.

Bottom Line:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.