Ryan's Rate Commentary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: HIGHER
Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +58 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: NEUTRAL
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) The Fed and 3) Domestic News.

1) Geopolitical: Really this category overrides any economic data or news this week as the MBS market and long bond market will continue to react severely to constant churn of headlines and news over "terminating" Fed Chair Powell, Tariffs and more.

2) The Fed: We will get the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday which means we will have a FOMC meeting just two weeks after that.

04/21 Goolsbee
04/22 Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Barkin, Kugler
04/23 Beige Book, Goolsbee, Waller, Hammack
04/24 Kashkari

3) Domestic News: We really don't have a major economic release this week that can move rates in a meaningful way. LEI will be interesting as will be the Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations.

Treasury Auction: Here is this week's auction schedule:
04/22 2 year note
04/23 5 year note
04/24 7 year note

This Week's Potential Volatility: HIGH
This morning markets started under pressure. Volatility has started at moderate levels but can increase at any moment depending on geopolitical headlines.

Bottom Line:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.