Ryan's Rate Commentary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: NEUTRAL
Mortgage rates have been under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +23 bps last week. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: HIGHER
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Tariffs, 2) Inflation and 3) The Fed.

1) Tariffs: The bond market will continue to have very strong swings and reactions as more tariff, retaliatory tariff and trade negotiations unfold this week with the April 9th date fast approaching. The across the board 10% tariffs kicked in on April 5th while the following will escalate in two days:

• Laos 48%
• Vietnam 46%
• Thailand 36%
• China 34%
• Indonesia 32%
• Taiwan 32%
• Pakistan 29%
• South Korea 25%
• Japan 24%
• EU 20%

2) Inflation: We will get both CPI and PPI this week.

3) The Fed: We will get the Minutes from the last FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Treasury Auction: We have a busy week for debt with Thursday's 30Y Bond auction getting the most weight among MBS traders.

04/08 3YR note
04/09 10YR note
04/10 30YR bond

This Week's Potential Volatility: HIGH
This morning markets were moving towards higher rates. Volatility has started high and will stay that way all week.

Bottom Line:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.